Paternity fraud, where a man is led to believe he is the biological father of a child who is not genetically his, remains one of the most under-reported and emotionally devastating forms of deception in the United Kingdom. Despite growing public awareness, the true scale of paternity fraud is difficult to quantify due to the private nature of disputes, the absence of mandatory testing, and legal barriers that restrict DNA analysis without consent. This report brings together the latest available statistics, outlines the UK legal framework, and examines the impact on fathers, children and families across the country.
Key Takeaways
- Paternity fraud rates in the UK vary widely across studies, with estimates ranging from 1% to 30%, and a median global rate of 3.7%
- Child Support Agency DNA testing (2007/8) revealed 19% of men tested were not biological fathers, with rates consistently between 10.6%–16.4% in preceding years
- At least 10% of UK children may be affected by paternal discrepancy, potentially translating to millions of affected individuals
- Only 1 prosecution has occurred since 1998, despite 4,854 false paternity claims identified through CSA DNA testing
Global Paternity Fraud Prevalence & UK Context
Estimated Prevalence Rates
- Global paternal discrepancy rates range from 0.8% to 30%, with a median of 3.7%
- University of Warwick study (2018) estimates the UK rate at 3%
- University of Oxford study (2021) suggests a lower UK rate of 1%
- UK average paternity fraud rate reported at 1.6% in recent analysis
- Some estimates suggest that at least 10% of UK children may be affected by paternal discrepancy, with rates potentially reaching 30% in certain socioeconomic groups
- Limited comprehensive official data is available due to the sensitive and private nature of paternity disputes
Child Support Agency DNA Testing Data
- 2007/8 CSA DNA testing revealed 19% of men tested were not biological fathers of the children they were supporting
- Preceding years showed consistent rates ranging from 10.6% to 16.4%
- 31% of paternity tests conducted through private testing services prove alleged fathers are NOT biological fathers
- This 31% figure fluctuates between 26–34% across multiple testing periods
- Since 1998, CSA has identified 4,854 false paternity claims through DNA testing
- Taxpayers covered £9.37 million in CSA DNA testing costs during this period
- Only 1 known prosecution has occurred in the UK despite thousands of identified false claims
International Comparison
- Nigeria: 30% average paternity fraud rate
- Jamaica: 34.6% average paternity fraud rate
- British survey (1988–1996) by the University of Manchester confirmed 10% figure
- Wide variation reflects different cultural contexts, testing motivations, and socioeconomic factors
UK Birth Statistics & Family Demographics (2024–2025)
Live Births in England and Wales
- 594,677 live births recorded in England and Wales in 2024
- 0.6% increase from 2023 (591,072 births), the first increase since 2021
- 567,708 live births in England (0.7% increase) and 26,832 in Wales (2.0% decrease)
- Total fertility rate declined to 1.41 children per woman in 2024, the lowest on record for the third consecutive year
- Births decreased for parents under 30 years and increased for parents aged 30+
- 14.2% increase in births to fathers aged over 60 since 2023
- Stillbirth rate: 3.9 per 1,000 total births in 2024, down 0.1 from 2023
Implications for Paternity Fraud Scale
- If 10% paternal discrepancy rate is applied to 2024 births, approximately 59,500 children will be potentially affected in a single year
- If 3% median rate is applied, approximately 17,800 children are affected annually
- Even at a conservative 1% rate, approximately 5,950 children are affected per year
- The cumulative effect over decades suggests millions of UK families are potentially impacted
UK Divorce & Family Breakdown Statistics (2023–2025)
2023 Divorce Statistics
- 102,678 divorces granted in 2023, representing 28.3% increase from 2022
- 1,138 civil partnership dissolutions in 2023 (116.8% increase from 2022)
- Total legal partnership dissolutions: 103,816 in 2023
- 42% of UK marriages are projected to end in divorce before the 25th anniversary
- 8.6 divorces per 1,000 married men and 8.5 per 1,000 married women
- Median marriage duration before divorce: 12.7 years for opposite-sex couples
- 1,891 same-sex divorces recorded in 2023, the highest annual figure to date
No-Fault Divorce Impact
- 74.2% of divorces granted under the new Divorce, Dissolution and Separation Act in 2023
- Rapid adoption from just 9.2% in 2022, following the April 2022 legislation introduction
- 73.1% of final orders were sole applications, 26.9% joint applications
- 2023 represents a return to pre-pandemic normal patterns after artificially low 2022 figures
2025 Divorce Trends (First Half)
- Almost 38,000 divorces in the UK during the first six months of 2025
- Almost one-third of marriages in 2025 ended due to adultery, the most common reason
- 26,153 divorce applications in Q3 2025, down 7% year-on-year
- 27,683 final divorce orders granted in Q3 2025, up 2% year-on-year
- 71% from sole applicants, 29% from joint applicants in Q3 2025
- Average timeline from application to final order: 74 weeks
- 'Growing apart' is cited as a common generalised reason alongside infidelity
Separated Families Statistics
- 2.4 million separated families in Great Britain
- 3.6 million children in separated families
- 56% of separated families have a child maintenance arrangement in place
- 89% of parents with care are female, all under age 50
- 86% of non-resident parents are male, 80% under age 50
DNA Paternity Testing: Accuracy & Reliability
Scientific Precision Standards
- DNA paternity tests achieve >99.9% accuracy for positive matches when conducted by reputable laboratories
- 100% certainty for exclusions — if DNA markers don't match, the man tested is definitely not the biological father
- Consular officials (for passports/CRBAs) only accept results providing 99.99%+ certainty to establish a genetic bond
- Modern kits analyse over 700,000 genetic markers compared to 600,000 in previous years
- Advanced sequencing technologies significantly reduced testing costs while improving accuracy
Testing Methodology
- Cheek swabs and blood tests both provide equal accuracy levels
- Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and Short Tandem Repeat (STR) analysis are used by certified laboratories
- Child receives half DNA from mother, half from father — comparison identifies shared genetic markers
- Rigorous scientific procedures include double-checking results and running multiple tests to confirm findings
- Strict laboratory protocols and quality control ensure exceptionally high reliability
Scientific Limitations
- No test can claim 100% accuracy in confirming paternity — results are presented with statistical probability
- Paternity tests offer a probability of over 99.9% for a positive match, considered legally and scientifically definitive
- Exclusions of paternity are 100% accurate, providing absolute certainty when markers don't match
At-Home DNA Testing Market Growth (2024–2032)
Global Market Size & Forecast
- The global at-home DNA test kits market is valued at USD 333 million in 2024
- Projected to reach USD 348 million in 2025
- Forecast to grow to USD 452 million by 2032
- 4.5% CAGR during the 2025–2032 forecast period
- Market growth is fuelled by consumer interest in genetic ancestry and health risk assessments
Market Drivers & Trends
- Increasing consumer awareness of genetic testing benefits
- Growing interest in personalised medicine and preventative healthcare
- Technological advancements are making tests more accessible and affordable
- Growing interest in ancestry tracing, particularly in the Asia-Pacific
- Online ordering dominance due to ease, convenience, and broader marketing reach
- Consumers appreciate the ability to manage the entire testing process from home
Regional Distribution
- North America and Europe currently hold the largest market share
- Higher disposable incomes, increased awareness, and robust regulatory frameworks support NA/Europe dominance
- Asia-Pacific is emerging as a significant growth market
- Rising disposable incomes and health consciousness are driving growth in Asia
Key Market Players
- Leading companies: 23andMe, AncestryDNA, MyHeritage DNA
- Additional key players: Nebula Genomics, Invitae Genetic Health Screen, Health Street
- Laboratory services: Labcorp DNA, Quest Diagnostics, DNA Diagnostics Center
- Other providers: Get Brio, EasyDNA
Challenges & Innovation
- Regulatory scrutiny regarding data privacy and test accuracy remains a challenge
- Scrutiny is also fostering innovation and more responsible practices
- Companies prioritising data security and test accuracy to maintain consumer trust
- The evolving regulatory landscape is accounted for in growth projections
UK Child Maintenance Service Statistics (2024–2025)
Quarterly Payments (December 2024)
- £372.2 million child maintenance arranged per quarter ending December 2024
- £276.9 million arranged through the Direct Pay service
- £95.3 million arranged through the Collect and Pay service
- £67.8 million actually paid through Collect and Pay
- £27.5 million unpaid through Collect and Pay (28.9% non-compliance rate)
- DWP does not measure the compliance of Paying Parents on the Direct Pay service
Annual Growth Trends
- 18% increase in the amount paid through Collect and Pay from the year ending December 2023 to the year ending December 2024
- £256 million paid in the year ending December 2023 vs £301 million paid in the year ending December 2024
- 19% increase in the amount arranged through Collect and Pay from the year ending March 2024 to the year ending March 2025
- £317 million arranged in the year ending March 2024 vs £376 million arranged in the year ending March 2025
Quarterly Payments (March 2025)
- £379.6 million child maintenance arranged per quarter ending March 2025
- £279 million arranged through the Direct Pay service
- £100.6 million arranged through the Collect and Pay service
- £72.5 million actually paid through Collect and Pay
- £28.1 million unpaid through Collect and Pay (27.9% non-compliance rate)
Total Maintenance Payments & Impact
- Total child maintenance payments topped £2.3 billion annually across separated families
- Child maintenance payments reduced the number of children in low-income households
- 60,000 children moved out of absolute low income on a Before Housing Costs basis
- 120,000 children moved out of absolute low income on a After Housing Costs basis
Legal Implications & Consequences in UK
Child Maintenance Obligations
- A man who discovers he is not the biological father can stop child maintenance payments going forward
- Unlikely he could reclaim past payments already made
- Paternity fraud affects emotional and financial obligations
- Financial obligations may continue in some circumstances, depending onthe legal establishment of paternity
Criminal Status & Prosecution
- Paternity fraud is technically a criminal offence in the UK
- Prosecutions are virtually non-existent despite thousands of identified cases
- Only 1 known prosecution in the UK since 1998
- 4,854 false paternity claims identified through CSA DNA testing since 1998, with minimal legal consequences
- Legal system response has been described as “woefully inadequate”, given the scale and severity
Emotional & Psychological Impact
- Paternity fraud occurs when the mother mistakenly or deliberately misidentifies the biological father
- Leads a man to believe he has a paternal obligation (emotional, financial, legal)
- Devastating revelation affects fathers, children, and extended families
- Potentially millions of UK families are impacted by this form of deception
- The sensitive and private nature of disputes limits comprehensive data collection
Sources
- AlphaBiolabs. (2025, January 30). What is Paternity Fraud? - Is it a Crime?
- Fraud.com. (2023, November 29). Paternity fraud exposed - insights and implications.
- Paternity Fraud UK. (2025, February 12). The Silent Epidemic: Understanding The Scale of Paternity Fraud in the UK.
- SAVE Services. (2025, May 15). Paternity Fraud is Serious and Widespread, But Incidents May Go Unpunished.
- Stowe Family Law. (2024, July 31). Is Paternity Fraud really a 'ticking time bomb'?
- Rayden Solicitors. (2025, April 29). Paternity Fraud in the UK.
- Office for National Statistics. (2025, June 29). Births in England and Wales: 2024.
- Office for National Statistics. (2025, August 25). Births in England and Wales: 2024 (refreshed populations).
- Mediate UK. (2026, February 10). Divorce Rate UK 2025: How Many Marriages End in Divorce?
- PB Notary Public. (2023, April 18). How Accurate is a DNA Paternity Test?
- Ambar Lab. (2025, April 3). DNA paternity test: process, accuracy, and what to expect.
- Bennett Smith. (2026, February 16). What can we learn from the UK's 2025 divorce statistics?
- DNA Legal. (2024, December 31). Family Dispute Statistics UK 2026.
- Oncogenomics. (2024, December 15). Common Misconceptions about the Accuracy of Paternity Tests.
- Data Insights Market. (2024, July 3). At-home DNA Tests Kits's Role in Shaping Industry Trends 2025-2033.
- GOV.UK. (2025, March 24). Child Maintenance Service statistics: data to December 2024.
- Intel Market Research. (2025, July 1). At-home DNA Tests Kits Market Outlook 2025-2032.
- GOV.UK. (2025, June 23). Child Maintenance Service statistics: data to March 2025.
- The Atto Group. (2025, April 22). Paternity Fraud: How It Happens.
- Intel Market Research. (2025, July 1). At-home DNA Tests Kits Market - Market Outlook 2025 - 2032.
- Yarwood Holmes. (2019, September 30). Child Maintenance Payments Top £2.3 Billion.